YX 4439 · BOS → BUF

departs 7:19 PM ET · arrives 9:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4439 · BOS → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?