YX 4453 · ORF → JFK

departs 5:32 PM ET · arrives 7:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ ORF is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4453 · ORF → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?