YX 4455 · ORD → CVG

departs 10:14 PM CT · arrives 12:38 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

CVG (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4455 · ORD → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?