YX 4475 · BOS → ROC

departs 9:18 PM ET · arrives 10:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

ROC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4475 · BOS → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?