Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4504 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

YX 4504 · ORD → PWM

departs 8:28 PM CT · arrives 11:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

PWM (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4504 · ORD → PWM

Odds over time