Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4508 LANDED 7:25 AM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 4508 · YYZ → PHL

took off 6:20 AM EDT · landed 7:25 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6am departures from YYZ are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4508 · YYZ → PHL

Odds over time