Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4509 LANDED 5:09 PM ET, ~11 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 4509 · EYW → PHL

took off 2:32 PM ET · landed 5:09 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

EYW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.92 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4509 · EYW → PHL

Odds over time