Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
YX 4516 · BOS → TVC
departs 10:10 AM ET · arrives 12:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 14%
Fri 10/2 10%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at TVC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TVC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at TVC that day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
This flight has been late 10% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
TVC (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.