Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 4518 · ORD → RDU
departs 3:59 PM CT · arrives 7:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 16%
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.