Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4528 IN THE AIR (OFF 6:52 AM ET, ETA 7:39 AM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

YX 4528 · ORF → ORD

took off 6:52 AM ET · expected to land 7:39 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.86 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4528 · ORF → ORD

Odds over time