Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4542 LANDED 10:37 AM ET, ~16 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 4542 · YYZ → LGA

took off 9:29 AM EDT · landed 10:37 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Other factors

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4542 · YYZ → LGA

Odds over time