YX 4553 · LGA → CHO

departs 12:12 PM ET · arrives 1:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at CHO more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CHO?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into CHO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CHO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4553 · LGA → CHO

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHO?