YX 4568 · PIT → JFK

took off 1:06 PM ET · landed 2:13 PM ET (scheduled 12:13 PM ET → 1:55 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JFK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at PIT that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

PIT (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4568 · PIT → JFK

Odds over time

How late did it get to JFK?