Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4604 LANDED 8:26 AM ET, ON TIME · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 4604 · LGA → CMH

took off 7:14 AM ET · landed 8:26 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into CMH at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4604 · LGA → CMH

Odds over time