Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4606 IN THE AIR (OFF 6:54 AM ET, ETA 8:18 AM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

YX 4606 · LGA → XNA

took off 6:54 AM ET · expected to land 8:18 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling10,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4606 · LGA → XNA

Odds over time