Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4608 LANDED 1:32 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 4608 · PHL → EYW

took off 10:59 AM ET · landed 1:32 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day

↑ Other factors

↑ 11am departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EYW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.92 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4608 · PHL → EYW

Odds over time