Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4613
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
YX 4613 · IND → PHL
departs 7:50 AM ET · arrives 9:46 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 8%
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↑
PHL is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
This flight has been late 8% of the time recently
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.