Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4649 LANDED 2:16 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 4649 · BNA → RDU

took off 12:06 PM CT · landed 2:16 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 12pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ BNA is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4649 · BNA → RDU

Odds over time