Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4651 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

YX 4651 · MEM → ORD

took off 6:57 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 5:31 PM CT → 7:37 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ ORD is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4651 · MEM → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?