YX 4656 · LIT → LGA

took off 7:07 AM CT · landed 10:36 AM ET (scheduled 7:01 AM CT → 11:00 AM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LIT is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIT

Weather at each end

LIT (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4656 · LIT → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?