YX 4688 · ROA → LGA

departs 5:28 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ROA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4688 · ROA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?