Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4690 LANDED 9:29 AM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 4690 · TUL → LGA

took off 5:47 AM CT · landed 9:29 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from TUL are usually not late

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.14 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4690 · TUL → LGA

Odds over time