Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4720
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
YX 4720 · ORD → CVG
departs 11:54 AM CT · arrives 2:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 18%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
11am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.