Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4726 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

YX 4726 · IND → BOS

took off 7:36 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:35 PM ET → 8:59 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from IND are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4726 · IND → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?