YX 4727 · BOS → STL

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4727 · BOS → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?