Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4746
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 4746 · MDT → ORD
departs 11:41 AM ET · arrives 12:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 9%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MDT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDT
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MDT (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.