Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4756
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 4756 · ORD → RDU
departs 9:29 AM CT · arrives 12:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 17%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
9am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.