YX 4792 · LGA → ILM

departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 10:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±3 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4792 · LGA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?