Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5612 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 5612 · MKE → LGA

took off 6:23 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.42 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5612 · MKE → LGA

Odds over time