YX 5615 · SDF → BOS

took off 1:51 PM ET · landed 3:50 PM ET (scheduled 12:49 PM ET → 3:25 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BOS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5615 · SDF → BOS

Odds over time

How late did it get to BOS?