Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5619 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

YX 5619 · MKE → BOS

took off 7:02 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:59 PM CT → 10:26 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MKE are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MKE that day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.42 in

BOS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5619 · MKE → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?