Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5623 LANDED 8:50 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 5623 · IND → BOS

took off 7:00 PM ET · landed 8:50 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5623 · IND → BOS

Odds over time