YX 5637 · SDF → LGA

departs 2:09 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5637 · SDF → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?