YX 5706 · BOS → PHL

departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 4:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5706 · BOS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?