YX 5718 · BOS → EWR

departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 7:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±6 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5718 · BOS → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?