YX 5796 · LGA → BUF

departs 9:31 PM ET · arrives 10:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5796 · LGA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?