Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5840 LANDED 8:21 AM ET, ~24 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

YX 5840 · BOS → LGA

took off 7:35 AM ET · landed 8:21 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5840 · BOS → LGA

Odds over time