Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5846 LANDED 2:34 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 5846 · DTW → GRR

took off 2:07 PM ET · landed 2:34 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↑ Other factors

↑ 2pm departures from DTW are often late

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

GRR (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5846 · DTW → GRR

Odds over time