YX 5846 · GRR → DTW

took off 4:23 PM ET · landed 4:50 PM ET (scheduled 3:54 PM ET → 5:00 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DTW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.35 in

DTW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5846 · GRR → DTW

Odds over time

How late did it get to DTW?