Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 9929 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 9929 · IND → LGA

departs 9:10 PM ET · arrives 10:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 9929 · IND → LGA

Odds over time