Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 9988 LANDED 6:15 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 9988 · GNV → IND

took off 4:29 PM ET · landed 6:15 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into IND at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

GNV (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 9988 · GNV → IND

Odds over time