Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1024 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 1024 · LAX → MCO

departs 10:51 AM PT · arrives 6:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1024 · LAX → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?