AA 1069 · AUS → PHL

departs 4:21 PM CT · arrives 9:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1069 · AUS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?