AA 1069 · PHL → AUS

departs 12:51 PM ET · arrives 3:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 733 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling733 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1069 · PHL → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?