Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1094 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 1094 · ORD → SMF

departs 9:08 PM CT · arrives 11:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

SMF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1094 · ORD → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?