AA 1121 · ORD → AUS

departs 8:07 AM CT · arrives 10:52 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.75 in

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility5.66667 mi Precip2.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1121 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?