AA 1141 · DFW → MSN

departs 8:39 AM CT · arrives 11:14 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
25%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

MSN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1141 · DFW → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?