AA 1141 · MSN → DFW

departs 11:35 AM CT · arrives 2:07 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
30%
Over 2 hours late
24%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.97 in

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,033 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.87 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1141 · MSN → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?