AA 1146 · AUS → DFW

departs 5:28 PM CT · arrives 6:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
17%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
28%
Cancelled
23%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 2.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.68 in

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.96 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1146 · AUS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?