Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1203 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 1203 · DFW → JFK

departs 5:39 PM CT · arrives 10:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±4 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.58 in

JFK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1203 · DFW → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?